Playing it out

It is very likely that the decision that will win or lose this Volvo Ocean Race has already been made. 

The three teams who still have an opportiunity to win the race - MAPFRE, Team Brunel and Dongfeng Race Team - have set themselves up in different lanes for the charge south towards the finish line. 

Dongfeng Race Team has opted to hug the coastline - a longer route, with potentially stronger winds all the way through the finish.

"We've chosen a path inshore," said watch captain Stu Bannytyne. "So there is a lot of very tricky navigation. There are a lot of sandbanks, Traffic Separation Schemes, maybe some windfarms and very changeable weather. I suspect no one is going to get any rest tonight, changing sails and navigating through it all. I don't know if anyone else has come this way, but it's going to be an interesting night."

In fact, Turn the Tide on Plastic and SHK/Scallywag have followed Dongfeng along the coast as they battle for sixth place on the overall leaderboard.

But their rivals for the overall title have stayed further offshore, a more direct route, but at the risk of losing the wind earlier than those near the land. 

"We're not quite sure whether Dongfeng and MAPFRE will go inside or outside," said Team Brunel helmsman Peter Burling earlier in the night. 

"We're definitely going outside, trying to find some good speed with the J0 headsail and get to Holland."

Brunel is furthest to the west, Dongfeng inshore to the east, and MAPFRE is in the middle. 

As of midnight UTC, the middle option was working well for MAPFRE, with the Live Tracker showing a three mile lead to skipper Xabi Fernández's boat over Bouwe Bekking's Team Brunel.

Dongfeng Race Team by virtue of their easterly position, was showing as 19 miles behind, a big sacrifice in distance from a team that was leading the leg 12 hours previously. 

But the payoff for the coastal option - if there is one - will come late in the leg, on the approach to The Hague, where the wind is forecast to ease significantly for those offshore. But with less than 200 miles to go to the finish, time is definitely a factor. 

At midnight UTC it was team AkzoNobel at the head of the leg leaderboard, as Simeon Tienpont's crew opted for the same line as Brunel in the west. Vestas 11th Hour Racing, in fourth place, was with the offshore group as well. 

Windspeeds that had been as high as 30 knots are now down in the 18-22 knot range and are forecast to continue moderating until the finish on Sunday afternoon.